A Nice Baseball Story

Former St. Louis Cardinals pitcher, 28 year old Rick Ankiel who failed in his return as a pitcher a few years ago, decided to go back to the minor leagues and give baseball a try as an outfielder. Riddled with injuries the past couple of years, he finally got his first shot back in the big leagues tonight and hit a 3 run homer in a 5-0 Cardinals win.

He struck out a bit and rarely walked while with the AAA club, but he definitely has some power (32 HR for the AAA club in 102 games). Tonight was a happy night for the Ankiel clan.

Glavine's 300th a Big Win for ESPN

A 3.0 rating w/3.6 million viewers! Biggest numbers since the Mark & Sammy Summer of love in 1998.

Glavine is a better ratings draw than Bonds for ESPN, though mysteriously whenever the Giants play on ESPN's Sunday night game of the week, Bonds always has the day off. Of course in any year the New York Mets will likely be a better ratings draw than the San Francisco Giants, but especially this year where the Mets lead the NL East (63-48) and the Giants are in the basement of the NL West (48-62).

All Hail Barry Bonds!

Even Mark Cuban. The primary reason I love Cubes so much is that he uses his brain to consider events in their full context way, way better than most people.

I'm going to the game tonight and I have a good feeling about it. I'm going with Michael Raneri who I used to work with at Charles Schwab. Michael's running a start-up Meevee these days and has two young children so we don't go to nearly as many games as we used to. I'd guess the first few years the park was open I went to 50+ games and about 20/season with Mike (plus playoffs and the World Series, ah, the good old days).

We saw #500 together. And #71 & 72 in a heartbreaking loss to the hated Dodgers. We saw #600 together and #661 (passing Mays -- and I think we saw 660 too, but I don't seem to have that ticket stub) and #700. I have a good feeling (despite this jinx) about seeing #756 with Mr. Raneri.

I won't run out on the field and circle the bases with Bonds (and be a part of video lore forever, like the fools from when Aaron broke the record), but I will stand on my feet with the other 42,000 and give the greatest hitter of my lifetime his due.

I assume Bonds used performance enhancers (just as I assume many if not most of his peers and the pitchers he faced), I assume the Giants management and ownership knew this, and I also assume Selig and MLB knew as well.

The way it worked out is that I have far more respect for Bonds than I do for ownership, Selig or MLB. Selig can say or do whatever, as can ownership, but at the end of the day, McGowan and Selig don't have to stare down a 91 MPH fastball.

I am a numbers guy: whether he was svelt or extra bulky, he always has had tremendous plate discipline. This year marks the 14th season (and he has not been bulky nearly that long) that Bonds drew over 100 walks. Aaron NEVER had a season with 100 walks (his best was 92).

Barry Bonds is the best hitter of my lifetime. His plate discipline, even at 43 years old is nothing short of amazing. With all the pressure of the world on him, hated by almost everyone the man uses all that to motivate him and then steps up to the plate, and delivers. On top of that he's one of the most entertaining performers to ever pick up the lumber.

If you watch the clip of #755, you'll see the ball lands near a woman who was holding up an "*"(asterisk) sign. You'll also see this same woman jumping up and down, cheering and giddy as the ball came her way.

He can even entertain and delight those who would mock him. He may well be the best there ever was.

755 and Beyond

And they said he could no longer get around on a fastball. Please.

But I'm not here to extoll the virtues of Barry Bonds, but rather express sadness at what I consider a missed opportunity.

There's an aspect of this event that's missing, and that's the celebration of all that Hank Aaron accomplished. I don't think he even needed to be there for it. I think it has to do with the cowardly way (for the most part), MLB commissioner Bud Selig chose to handle this entire situation.

For any number of reasons I don't blame Aaron for not being there, but I do blame MLB/Bud Selig for not using this opportunity to completely celebrate and honor all that Hank Aaron did (whether he was at the games or not). Selig did wind up doing the right thing if doing the right thing was trying to be at the games. The way he went about it though was seemingly to pray like hell Bonds would be indicted, and then when that didn't happen to suck it up and be at the games.

The statement Selig issued after 755 was true. The paraphrase of Selig's statement: "Regardless of what you think about the controversy, it's a very impressive feat". But if it's on youtube, you should look for the Selig reaction as the homerun was hit. You'd think he was watching paint dry.

I do understand that it's tricky to navigate, but if Bonds represents all that is wrong with MLB, Hank Aaron represents everything that's right about it. That aspect was not well represented in any of this, and not because Aaron wasn't there, but because Selig and MLB didn't make that happen. I see that as a big missed opportunity, not just for Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds, but MLB and its fan base.

MLB All-Star Game Historical TV Viewership Update

TVbytheNumbers is still over a month off, but here's an update to change from ratings to actual viewers and to include the 2007 data. (click on the chart to enlarge).

Eight Years Later and I Can’t Buy Entourage over the Internet

On the 8th anniversary of the broadcast.com IPO, I can’t help but wondering, what is HBO thinking about? You can’t even buy a four pack of Entourage episodes on iTunes for $8.00. I believe the $1.99 pricing would work out for HBO, it just needs to price stuff where if you subscribe to more than 2 things, it’d be a better deal just subscribing to HBO. I know, HBO like all the Time Warner schmoes on the music business side that came before it are worried about cannibalization. But there are a few ways around worrying about cannibalizing the HBO subscription service and the DVDs. Update: 7:35am, according to Cuban, it's the 9th anniversary of the IPO and the 8th anniversary of closing the broadcast.com deal, a special day for Mr. Cuban no matter how you look at it!

Does HBO think in 10 years the fate of the DVD is going to be any better than the CD? The DVDs purpose in life at that point will be very cheap media you can cram a lot of stuff on. Otherwise most people will be buying their content digitally already. And since that’s the way content will be sold anyway, why not get in ahead of the curve for a change? Otherwise you just encourage the countless sites up and available on the Internet aimed at providing immediate (and free) access to Entourage, the Sopranos, John in Cincinnati. I can understand not wanting to deal with Apple and although I think it’s dumb to fight that trend, I think Time Warner has a chance to sell its HBO content via its AOL arm. None of that synergy stuff seems to be playing out and it rankles me.

You don’t even have to do this in a way that cannibalizes the mothership or the DVDs. First, make it something that would be high quality on the iPod or iPhone but not so great on the TV. Or make the video high quality anyway – it’s not like iTunes includes any of the director’s or actor’s commentary tracks. There will still be a reason to buy the DVDs until all the content providers have thrown in the towel and realize digital distribution is going to win and they have to even include the good stuff digitally. For now though, that is a ways off.

I don’t know if there’s a penalty for HBO and others not being first movers here. It seems like the penalty is that people who might otherwise buy it wind up stealing it because it’s the fastest way to go. I have to be honest, I pay for HBO and various DVRs and record Entourage. I still find downloading the free torrent is faster than converting the huge file on my DVR into a format for my iPhone (mp4 or m4v) So, I’d already be willing to pay HBO or Comcast a small extra fee for access to “optimized for iPhone/iPod” files of shows I have already paid for in high definition.

The question for me is does HBO think about this at all and decide it’s not right for them or are they just not even thinking about it? A real decision not to do it I couldn’t find fault with, but if HBO isn’t even thinking about it, that’s another story.

I understand as well that the various producers of content may have different deals in terms of digital distribution and I think HBO not necessarily owning those rights right now isn’t a big deal if that’s the case. But I think such things will be a fairly huge deal in the 5-10 year time range.

Some have suggested via the comments under Cuban’s blog entry that perhaps Cubes has broadcast.com II up his sleeves. I hope so, but I think his focus is on owning sports franchises now and judging from the content I can download via hd.net, Cuban has become a content owner now and doesn’t want to cannibalize his content either. The only thing available for streaming/download from hd.net is 2 hours of Dan Rather content that is decidedly NOT in high definition. It’s good enough to look at and watch, but if my whole brand was based on high definition, I don’t know if I’d release much lower than HD quality content to the internet, even in consideration of bandwidth constraints. The file wasn’t so big that even doubling the file size and breaking it up into 2 pieces would’ve curtailed my desire to download it. My only point with this is that unless Cuban is deliberately trying to look “backwards compatible” with what’s available on HD.Net, he’s not looking to do “Broadcast II, and this time we mean it!”

The latest Dan Rather episode (from July 10th) is available for streaming via the Google Video player, and the production value isn’t nearly as good as some shorter stuff, like “Will it Blend: iPhone" via YouTube.

Another Update: 7:40a: In the credit where credit is due, much as this pains me, credit goes to Major League Baseball (MLB!). For $4.99 via iTunes I was able to buy all the coverage of the All Star Week festivities here in San Francisco (the rookie game, celebrity softball game, the Home Run Derby and the All Star Game itself). I thought it was a good value so I downloaded it. I was disappointed (come on, you knew I would be disappointed with something!)it was in 4:3 format instead of 16:9 widescreen, but it's optimized for the iPod, not my big screen. Still a good value for $4.99

Why I just went LONG 1000 YHOO in my IRA

Normally I don't invest, but, I saw an opportunity here.

The main factor I attribute to this buy is the education I have received recently, specifically from Ted Leonsis, though not anything to do with YHOO and GOOG.

There is a dynamic currently in place where things with scale, any scale (and especially some kind of scale with people who have and spend money) are increasing in value even as scale is being reduced. Whether it's ABC, NBC or CBS, or MLB, NBA and NHL, it doesn't matter. "Share" may be going down, but valuations are going up.

I take this to mean that YHOO, even as the #2 has so much scale that unless it completely screws up, ultimately (thinking 5 years) it will appreciate in value considerably even as it loses "share".

Think I'm wrong? Maybe I am, but it's a dynamic that's already in place and one way I can show that is the television Networks. ABC, CBS and NBC lost 2/3rds of their "share" during primetime between 1995-2006 seasons. All 3 combined now have the share they each once had. Even adjusting for inflation, and even though I don't know the specific valuations I'm comfortable thinking the values of these networks has…not decreased.

I suspect the same thing to happen w/Yahoo. But if I'm wrong, I won't blame Ted.

update: think "Lowest Rated NBA Finals in History" matters? Not to the NBA or the networks it doesn't, it just got 20% MORE in revenues...I know it's counter-intuitive at first, but, 20% more is 20% more and there's just no getting around that.

NBA announces extensions of TV deals with ESPN/ABC, TNT
The Associated Press
Article Last Updated: 06/28/2007 01:50:29 AM MDT

NEW YORK - The NBA's new television contracts with ESPN/ABC and TNT include rights to technologies that have yet to be invented, an indication of the importance the deals place on newer forms of media. The eight-year extensions go through the 2015-16 season.

The current six-year contracts expire at the end of next season. ''I consider this to be a wonderful vote of confidence by our very sophisticated network partners who are making such a substantial and long-term commitment,'' NBA commissioner David Stern said. The number of games televised on the networks won't change much. What's different are the extensive rights for the networks to broadcast games and other content on the Web and mobile phones.

The NBA will receive about $930 million a year for all its broadcast rights, an increase of more than 20 percent from the previous average of $767 million, according to a person familiar with the deal who requested anonymity because he wasn't authorized to release details. The previous contracts, though, did not include the extensive digital media rights. Stern said the traditional TV rights still are worth more than the digital rights. ESPN/ABC and TNT will each be able to simulcast and offer video on-demand for games on its networks. Stern and network executives downplayed the league's declining TV ratings, insisting there is still plenty of demand for NBA-related content through other forms of media.

All Star Game Ticket Strip

they make these things into art. I'm tempted to ticket relay one seat (it will invalidate the strip and issue tickets that aren't as pretty) and frame one. My photography is bad, it's much prettier in real life.

Giants take 2 out of 3 from Yankees

Mussina is a stubborn, stubborn man with his delivery, and just like in the PS3 version of MLB2K7, the Giants stole 5 bases off of him easily.

Roger Clemens was used in a rare relief appearance, walking Barry Bonds and giving up 1 run in an inning of relief as the wheels came off the New York Yankee's bus.

Would you pay $30,000 for 2 Tickets to the All-Star Game?

Update: (6/25 19:32 PDT) the price on these seats was lowered to $24,750, now the total is only @$27,225. they're still for sale as of this writing.

-----

If so, someone's trying to sell them. They are good seats, I think 2nd row behind home plate just a little diagonal from the left handers batter's box.

Yes, I know it says only $27, 500, but there's the little matter of the convenience fee. Click on the read more link for that picture.

Convenience charge huh? That's....convenient. For MLB at least. These pictures were snapped via the Giants' Double Play Ticket Window. And oh yeah, the HDTVs and cushioned seats -- that totally is going to close the deal. You could buy 7 or 8 fairly high end 58" plasma screen HDTV's and still have enough money left over for a couple of top of the line Lazy Boys, a few cases of beer and a gourmet feast.

A couple of things to note:

1. there's some kind of city ordinance in SF about how you can't stand in front of the ballpark and sell tickets for more than face value. But if you have a computer, it's totally fine and MLB is happy to take a 10% commission.

2. The actual cost of my tickets, which are good, but nowhere near that good was $1167 for 2 seats. But those seats were still only $220 more (total). Here's the table of face values from the Giants. My seats are "Premium Lower Box" and the $30K seats (just for the All Star Game) are Field Club.

One Last Steroid Rant, and This Time I Really Mean It

I'm pretty sure I have Google adwords figured out to my satisfaction. This one won't be too much of a rant. I wasn't lying when I said Bud Selig is a liar, and here is just one example (it's #4 on the list), you could find several variations of the same thing. Bud Selig is a liar, but he's fairly consistent about it.

Here's my true personal feelings on performance enhancers in professional sports. It doesn't really bother me too much. I know there are issues with kids, and I don't dispute that's a real issue. But I'm far more worried about parents encouraging their 12 year olds to have "Tommy John" surgery. People lie and cheat in this world, and famous rich people with talent have special exceptions made for them. It's not a myth, it's a fact.

If you eliminate steroids in professional sports, you won't save the kids. The kids will still have alcohol, drugs and a host of other temptations to deal with. All you can do is prepare them and hope for the best. "Yes, there are cheaters and liars out there, but don't let it make you angry. And yes, there are people like Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds, but they were very talented gentleman involved in a highly competitive profession where effectively they were all in the top tiniest percentile and no matter what they do or how they act, not just some, but many people will pay them a great deal of attention, because at least in one dimension they outcompeted almost everyone else.

Inside of sports is sometimes very sleazy. Between 2002-2004 I read almost every major book on baseball written in the 20^th century. There was always cheating, always lying, always a few very foul people. Ty Cobb was a very, very nasty man. But he sure could hit. Ty Cobb didn't have the pressure of the media like Barry and Sammy have it. Mr. Bonds has it far, far worse. Some of it he brought on himself but that suits him fine because he really doesn't care what you think (or what I think). From 2000-2003 he was the most amazing hitter I ever saw. Far and away the most amazing hitter I've ever seen.

I went to the ballpark many nights, and most of him, he did not disappoint. I was sure he was cheating but I was sure many, perhaps even most, were cheating. The guy sitting next to me thought the same thing. I thought people knew.

As far as performance enhancers go, I'd like to see one of three things happen (pick one):

1. Legalize them
   
2. Actually test for them (you need blood tests for certain things like HGH which can't be tested via urine samples)
   
3. SHUT UP ABOUT IT. TOTALLY IGNORE IT AND MOVE ON!
   

What will likely actually happen is none of the above, at least for a while. Barring some disaster, Barry will break the record and then I know I'll be hearing about that for at least a month afterwards on ESPN. If Barry hadn't been so good once performance enhanced, if say, like Sosa, he had only around 600 homeruns right and retired 2 years ago it would be different.

But he was that good. In years to come there will be stupid discussions like "Mark McGwire's statistics are more valid because he didn't put as much performance enhancements into his system as Barry Bonds."

It's never going away.

Neither is baseball at least not anytime soon, and that's why I don't expect anything to change at all.

Last night the New York Yankees came to town for the first time ever in terms of a regular season game (they did play one exhibition game here before the regular season began in 2000). The game sold out. Robin Williams (San Franciscan) and Billy Crystal (New Yorker) sat together behind the Giants dugout rooting for opposite teams. They still love the game, and they don't care about the cheating, not really. If it really bothered them they wouldn't go to the games. I'm sure Robin Williams feels about the same as I do right now, the last place San Francisco Giants could use a little performance enhancing. Barry did go yard though. 749.

Jason Stark of ESPN/ESPN.COM has for years down a "Useless Information Dept" column filled with statistics and weird views on this (recently he listed the pitchers who've given up home runs to a batter who wasn't even alive when the pitcher made his major league debut) and I love that stuff, and steroids era wise, I could probably have some number fun like that. But I'm going to give you some useful information (assuming baseball as a business interests you in the slightest):

Ticket sales are up. 2006 total attendance outperformed 2001. In 2001 the New York Yankees had an average attendance for all games (home and road) of 37,780. In 2006 they averaged 44,943 for all of their games (again, this is home and away, the Yankees had record home attendance in 2006 averaging 51,858 per game and breaking 4.2 million in total home attendance).

Note: I got these numbers off of ESPN.com and as a Giants fan I can look at the Giants numbers and tell you it's not really attendance but "paid attendance". Paid attendance in MLB parlance means you paid for your ticket whether you showed up or not. They'd rather have everyone who paid show up (concession sales), but if you paid, you paid, we're counting you. I agree with the methodology.

I draw four conclusions from the stat tables at ESPN:

1. Paid attendance has gone up in the last 5 years.
   
2. Overall paid attendance was helped by more than 1.75 million annual ticket sales from 2001-2005 just by moving the Montreal Expos to Washington (where a new stadium will open soon). The 2006 Nationals overall attendance (home and away games) averaged 11,000 more tickets per game
   
3. Similarly new stadiums with more seats and improvements to existing stadiums. Fenway is small in terms of seating capacity but amazingly they have been able to cram room for over 4000 more seats since 2001. Somehow they squeezed room for almost another 500 in between last year and this year.
   
4. It's probably maxing out in terms of ticket sales (based on 2007 averages), but they can keep raising the prices.
   
   

National network ratings are probably not going up and I have no idea what the local ratings are. It doesn't matter. Ratings can keep going down some and baseball will still get a bigger contract from the television networks. I am a quick study and I understand how the game works now when it comes to this kind of thing and network ratings.

Budweiser needs to sell beer. Baseball sells beer. Budweiser is willing to pay even more than they already are to advertise and they will. Ratings for this year's World Series could be as bad as they were for the NBA finals. It won't matter. When it comes right down to it, MLB will charge FOX (or whoever the highest bidder is) more than they are making now, and FOX or whatever network winds up with it will turn around and charge Budweiser more money to offset the costs.

And all of that will happen whether they do anything about steroids or not. As long as Billy Crystal and Robin Williams are still coming to sold out stadiums to watch baseball games (where much beer is sold, by the way), Budweiser will pay for the ads. It's not just Budweiser of course, but you get the idea.

ESPN and its ilk will, as they should, keep playing to the controversy, and the one thing you should know about me is I'm always a little early to the dance and looking around and wondering where everyone is. There will be a day, and it will not be many years where, they're calling Bud Selig a liar on PTI and Around the Horn and when that day comes, I'm going to get some e-mail from my friend Bill G that goes: you. were. exactly. right.

The name's Robert Seidman, the date is June 23, 2007.

No more steroids ranting, and this time I really do mean it.

P.S. if you search on "Bud Selig is a Liar" as of this moment (and these results change over time) you will see the Crasnick story weighing in at #9, and some crazy guy occupying spots 3 through 6, but weighing in at #2, as if Google has some algorithm for "the truth" is this entry which didn't have the word "liar" in it anywhere (and I checked the source code to make sure there wasn't some prankster tagging going on -- there wasn't). I couldn't even leapfrog over Bud's own entry. Dang the man.

The #2 entry for bud selig is a liar:

The Official Site of Major League Baseball: Official info: MLB ...
Allan H. (Bud) Selig was elected the ninth Commissioner of Baseball on July 9, 1998 by a unanimous vote of the 30 Major League Baseball club owners. ...mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/about_mlb/executives.jsp?bio=selig_bud - 62k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this

Jason Giambi is a Cheater

That's no assumption. It's a fact. Some idiots are posting on ESPN.com that he's a man for owning up. He's a man for being able to make millions of dollars via cheating? You HAVE to be kidding me!

Again, this is no assumption: he admitted he cheated in the leaked grand jury testimony and while I think it's vile that the testimony was leaked (hey, at least they're sending the dope who leaked it to jail), he did cheat. Plus, a couple of years later when the world already KNEW he was a cheater, he cheated again with amphetamines, and got caught.

He's no man for agreeing to talk to Senator Mitchell and issuing an apology for using steroids. The only reason he did that is because Bud Selig put a gun to his head.

It accomplishes nothing. By pointing the gun at Mr. Giambi's head, Mr. Selig gets absolutely nothing useful in return. Giambi adamantly agreed to talking only about his own usage (he will NOT talk about anyone else) and issued an apology.

We already KNEW he was a cheater and he's already apologized although before today he was only apologizing for "that stuff". Today's apology specifically used the word steroids.

The only thing this accomplishes is it gives the appearance that Bud Selig tried to do something (even if it accomplishes nothing). I am results and solutions-oriented, however I know we live in a world where appearances matter. But when you look just the littlest bit under the surface, the appearance is, it's worthless in terms of actually accomplishing anything.

Is the American public and Congress stupid enough to buy it? Perhaps not, but perhaps the American public at large and Congress is lazy enough to not look under the surface at all and so sick of the whole business that it is enough.

At least until Barry gets to 750, then ESPN will be all over it 24x7. In the meanwhile, look at Giambi's sh*t eating grin! It's as if to say, "I cheated and laughed all the way to the bank, hahahahahah!"

What do you think about cheating in Baseball? Do you think Barry Bonds is worse than Giambi? Better? The same?

Update 17:40 PDT: The meeting between Giambi and Senator Mitchell is will not happen until July at the the earliest. The reason? They can't get all of the lawyers necessary to be available at the same time until then.

MLB Pepsi ads starring Damon and Mauer

pretty funny!

Click here, here, here and here to see the ads, created by BBDO New York.

MLB All-Star Game Ratings 1967-Present

Can MLB/FOX make it two consecutive years of ratings increases?


I doubt it. The phrase "Lowest rated ____ in history" is going to continue its trend. These lines are all down for everything but the Super Bowl and NASCAR.

But this year is special. Controversy...building, mounting, controversy. It will build faster if Barry hits a few more homeruns. At his current pace he won't break the record before July 10, but stranger things have happend. Either way, the Bud vs. Barry controversy is brewing.

Will this controversy be good for MLB ratings? Perhaps. If the downward trend continues though, no doubt it will be blamed (rightly or wrongly) on the impurity of the game and dislike of Bonds. Looking at the overall trendline I would conclude if the ratings go up measurably vs last year, Barry ought to get some credit for that (even if they just tuned in to hate him). If the ratings go down, I'd attribute it to the trend. Bill Plaschke (who I do enjoy, but who like anyone else can be a dope sometimes) will blame it on Barry.

I'll probably repost this chart again in a few weeks, but you people in the know enjoy getting in on things before the hoi polloi.

P.S. TV by the Numbers is coming Fall '07.

World Series Ratings

World Series Telvision Ratings Breakdown

hint: if you charted it, it over the last 20 years it would look a lot like the NBA and NHL.

Is Capitalism Self-Destructive: Barry Bonds & Bud Selig Edition

Almost everything can be self-destructive, and that's just the truth of the way the world works. It applies even to good things. For example, I am curious about a great many things and I love to learn, and right now I'm highly motivated for the first time in years. All of that has coupled together in a way that has been very enjoyable and that I have been very enthusiastic about.

However, there is a downside, and that is I have gotten on average about 4 hours of sleep a night for the last 2 weeks. I need to rein it in to make sure I'm getting a good 7 hours or so at least 5 times a week. Is being curious self-destructive? Is a desire to learn self-destructive? Is being highly motivated self-destructive? You wouldn't think so and you'd think it's a preposterous notion to suggest such a thing probably. But it isn't completely preposterous.

If I keep on my current path and then wind up developing some illness as a result of wearing myself out: it's self-destructive. It's definitely on me to rein it in and balance very good attributes (curiosity, desire to learn and motivation) against my overall health. When you don't balance something against "overall health", it's self-destructive, no matter what it is.

It is the same for capitalism. Is capitalism in and of itself self-destructive? I don't think it is, not any more than I think being curious is. But when it runs unbalanced and unchecked against things we really value – say "overall health", it's problematic.

We don't love our nature. Human nature that is, and I think Oscar Wilde said it best when he said, "If you want to tell the truth make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you". Please don't kill me though: our nature is, that sometimes when the stakes are very high, or perceived to be so, there is a very strong propensity to lie.

That we don't LIKE that this is the way that it is seems to be as much of a problem as the lying itself. Because that it's hard for us to say, "yeah, the base condition is that in situations like that, people lie, whether it's the president, Barry Bonds or Bud Selig." That we can't easily admit (and me either by the way) this is the way it is produces much of the hypocrisy. Sometimes I think it's our lack of fortitude for dealing with, accepting and talking about our human nature that can produce situations like what has happened with performance enhancing drugs in Major League Baseball.

Because we don't want to deal with the truth:

1. We loved the home runs and the ticket sales show that
   
2. The incentive to cheat by the players was very high because better performance means a much bigger contract. Can you say Jason Giambi?
   
3. The incentive by management to look the other way was very high (see #1)
   

The truth, the real truth – and I couldn't find a way to make it funny, so please don't shoot me is that almost everyone has a role. The fans, the players and the ownership/management, we all participated in this. That most of the fans don't want to admit that is as big of a part of the problem as anything else.

I believe that if you could blood test any random sample of 10 players, 5 position players, and 5 pitchers, at least half would test positive for Human Growth Hormone. If what Bud Selig is REALLY doing is trying to press the union (MLBPA) to allow blood tests into the collective bargaining agreement: this I would support strongly and I would give such testing the benefit of the doubt. But the problem is: my eyes. The MLBPA's resitance to just saying "we hate cheating and we want to fix it, so bloood tests!", is real resistance. I'm not imagining it or making this up. They are in fact resisting just that.

The NFL for example had a problem with steroids. They implemented testing, they did NOT do any witch hunt to find past sinners, but perhaps with the NFL the players and management were always more in unison (this seems to be the case based on observations over my lifetime). But then again, there are players in the NFL, even the size of their heads, who make Barry Bonds look like a petite ballerina. The stakes are very high in the NFL too. All the same "human nature" aspects apply.

Do I believe the NFL doesn't have an issue with performance enhancers? Not really. I believe for a variety of reasons, we give them a pass. I believe if Barry Bonds only had 500 home runs right now, baseball might have gotten a pass too. I'm not sure about that, but it seems football didn't have the same "sanctity of the game" issues baseball is plagued with.

What I do believe in is fixing problems. I'm not sure we really want this problem fixed. These issues come out as polarizing issues where human nature is…we want to pick a side. In the case of cheating in baseball, I don't think there really is a side. Players cheated because it was lucrative, the fans seemed to enjoy it and the owners looked the other way because no matter how loud we were crying about Bonds, we were still buying millions of tickets and spending more money on baseball.

To fix cheating in baseball without legalizing the cheating (that's certainly the easiest solution and the path of least resistance) all sides need to take accountability. The players don't want to take accountability, the ownership doesn't want to take accountability and in the mainstream, neither do the fans.

You can't test for human growth hormone and the positive impact on HGH for these guys is enough that sure as heck, if they can't get caught, they'll take it. Giambi got caught taken amphetamines when it was possible he COULD get caught (and he did). So what do you think his stance is on stuff he can't actually be tested and caught for?

If it were up to me to fix, I'd just have the President of the United States have Donald Fehr and Bud Selig over to the White House for a little Tony Soprano style sit down that goes like: "Invoke some kind of full-on blood testing right now, or my last act in office will be to see that the antitrust exemption for MLB is removed. I don't think either one of you wants that."

But see, here's the thing, Mr. Bush himself started this by being very vocal about usage of steroids and other performance enhancers in his 2003 "State of the Union Address" (on the heels of 73 home runs by Mr. Bonds). I'm beginning to think, like most people, Mr. Bush just wants to see Barry Bonds nailed and doesn't want to fix the problem.

I'm actually more concerned about fixing the problem, and am surprised to wind up in the minority on this one. This is further complicated because of the issues of race which also concern me. Giambi gets a pass, Bonds doesn't? That doesn't play out well over time and I hate to see it.

I am OK with taking the blame for this problem, but I'd actually like to FIX it or decide we just don't care and move on. It shouldn't just be about a witch hunt, and that is all it seems to be.

Is capitalism self-destructive? I don't think so. But human nature sure can be.

Who Ya Got, Wilbon or Kornheiser? Google says: Wilbon!

First, the important stuff, for some reason Google adwords values Michael Wilbon more than Tony Kornheiser. And Google LOVES Woody Paige.

Update: Woody like Michael Wilbon, was $1/click out of the gate. Paige is up to $5/click now in that campaign (too rich for my blood) and even Plaschke is $5.

Wilbon escalated to $5 as well. Kornheiser? Still only a dollar. Jay Mariotti? $.50. This could be somehow in Google-ese that Jay is more associated with the rantings of a mad-man and so they gave me a price break. To be honest, some of what happens in terms of results makes a lot of sense on the Google side, but some of it...not so much. Now on with the real piece.

Ted Leonsis wrote a blurb on how the whole deal with the crazy DA that knew that none of the Duke Lacrosse player’s DNA was involved, and yet according to his lawyer “his brain just couldn’t process the information. That’s just the way his brain works.” (that’s a paraphrase, though not much of one). Ted said now the whole thing should be put to bed and that we always have to remember someone is innocent until proved guilty.

While I generally do love that system, I’m really not so sure. The DA got disbarred, and that’s good. But I’m all good with him getting an immediate 5 year jail sentence where he has to actually serve 6-12 months, and I don’t even need the trial. One thing is for sure, barring a miracle, this isn’t going to bed. Certainly if the families of those kids can’t press criminal charges against the former D.A., they will try something in the civil courts (assuming the guy has a couple of nickels to rub together). I hope they press criminal charges. It was criminal what he did to those kids. Losing his license to practice law is a good start, and it’s probably enough for me. But I doubt it’s enough for those kids, and if it isn’t I couldn’t blame them.

I also don’t need a court of law to know that Barry Bonds is lying, that Mark McGwire lied, that Sammy Sosa lied – not just about his abilities with English when he was in front of congress, and not just with the steroids, but oh man, don’t even get me started on the corked bat.

I know for sure they lied, and I don’t need any other information. Also, you can look at what actually happens and absolutely figure out the rest (Dusty Baker knew about Bonds, Tony LaRussa knew about McGwire…But Selig for sure, knew).

It’s the human condition. When the stakes are very high (or in some cases only perceived to be high when they are actually not), we have a tendency to lie our butts off. “I did not have sex with that woman…”

When it comes to kids, or even most people, I am right there with Ted. But when it comes to stuff I have to watch on ESPN every day? No. Rafael “the finger wag” Paliemero wagged his finger while he lied (and a few months later tested positive – then he tried to lie again and blame it on someone else!).

I persist only because I am delusional and actually want to resolve the steroids crisis. I’m a problem solver. If you want cheating in baseball fixed, you have to fix it from both sides. Am I as sure as I can be that Barry knew exactly what the cream and the clear were? Yes, yes I am. Am I sure Giants managers, coaches, Brian Sabean (GM) knew that Barry was up to something? Of course I am. Am I as certain that Bud knew about steroids as I am that Sammy Sosa can absolutely tell the difference between his regular bat and a corked bat with his eyes closed? Of course I am.

Both sides lied because it benefited both sides. This is why I view this vastly differently than I view the D.A. and Duke Lacrosse players. In that scenario only one guy was lying – the D.A. He wanted a juicy case that would get press and get him reelected. With performance enhancing drugs in MLB, everyone is lying because everyone benefited. Worse still, it is perceived by both sides that there is absolutely no upside in telling the truth. I agree with this because the whole investigation is unjust, focusing only on the players. That might make congress happy that MLB did something. But congress is a hypocrite too. MLB is like the only entity in the USA with an anti-trust exemption. If the government really wanted to get baseball to do something, they’d just threaten to revoke that. There has been legislation proposed to do just that, but it’s more of lone gun thing than the congress singing in unison.

I ran the ads calling Bud Selig a liar against the keywords, Bud Selig, MLB, and Barry Bonds. But I threw a little bit of money at it. Less than 1% of what I think it would take to actually make a difference, and if any of you want to send me the other 99% I’ll gladly keep at it. I targeted “Shame on you ESPN” ads against the keywords ESPN! And I was the only ad!

I got some e-mail from Google that one of my ads had been disapproved – but it was because of spelling/grammar! I had spelled Sportscenter as Sportcenter. I fixed it, and put the ad back up. My favorite hour of the day is 2pm-3pm on ESPN, and although I almost never watch it live, I almost never ever miss Around the Horn or PTI. I ran my ads against Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon. Initially, Kornheiser was $.50 and Wilbon was $1!! Tony Reali ($.40/click) initially outranked every member of Around the Horn I ran the ad against except Woody Paige, who like Wilbon went for a dollar. In the end the “quality” (it’s not a complex explanation, but I’ll skip it here) of my ads was so bad that Kornheiser went up to $1 and everyone else went up to $.50.

But Wilbon was $1 out of the gate. I tried my pals Ted Leonsis -- who was actually the only celebrity other than the fictional “Denny Crane – who already had an ad running against his keyword (it was for some kind of speakers bureau for speaking engagements) and Mark Cuban. Like Kornheiser they were original $.50. But one of my campaigns got so bad that Cuban got jacked up to $10/click (too rich for my blood!). I put him back against another campaign and got him back down to $.50. In the campaign where Cubes escalated to $10, Ted Leonsis only jacked up to $1.

Cuban got the most “celebrity“ traffic, about 8x more than Ted. Of the sports shows it was Woody Page, followed by Kornheiser, Wilbon, and “stat boy” Tony Reali , and Tim Cowlishaw. I screwed up and misspelled Bill Plaschke’s and Jay Mariotti’s names and didn’t correct it until too late in the game to be a fair comparison (there were no searches other than my own to make sure the ad was running). I feel bad too because Plaschke was the inspiration for the “Shame on You” ad campaigns. While Cuban got much more traffic than Leonsis, Cuban didn't generate any clicks. Ted got 1 click. ESPN/MLB resulted in ~250 clicks on over 100,000 impressions.

Other than knowing that I was crazy as hell to pay what I did to conduct this experiment, I know for sure if you target a keyword like ESPN with a “Shame on You ESPN” ad, you can generate some clicks! Almost all of them are no good, they see it’s a blog and bolt immediately. Only about 17% of the clicks actually read the article it pointed to.

I was trying to learn how Google Adwords work, and the experience was very beneficial. I was surprised that nobody was targeting ads at keywords like MLB, ESPN, Baseball or Barry Bonds (that ad says “Shame on You Bud Selig” and it is the only ad on the page.

I asked my astute friend Bill G. if he thought there was a revenue opportunity here for Google ultimately where the likes of ESPN, MLB etc will just by sponsorships against their trademarked keywords (you can’t put the trademark in your ad, but you can attach the ad to a keyword that is a trademark). Bill’s reply:

Clearly those folks don't care now. My guess is they will not care until there is an event that rises above the noise of their lives/businesses. That may be you/now. That may be nothing/ever.

I agree with Bill in general. It will not be me now because I was not willing to throw 100x or 1000x against it (and didn't have 1000x to throw at it if I wanted to!). But if someone with a spare million bucks wanted to work at it, I think they could break through the noise. If someone wants to transfer a spare million into my adwords account, I’m glad to do the leg work.

If your goal is to try to make a difference (and like anyone else, that’s my goal too) the time is now. Bonds is at 748, the All-Star game is coming up here in San Francisco and that means more ESPN talking about more steroids but never talking about, “Damn, you know that Robert Seidman is right, this whole thing is bogus. Why don’t they focus the investigation equally on Bud Selig, management and ownership, too or just listen to Giambi, have the 'we all screwed up' speech and move on."

I understand there is the need for all sides to politically maneuver here to protect their interests. You want to fix it, it’ll be a lot easier to fix with: BLOOD TESTS. But the MLBPA won’t go for that. My advice is that the MLBPA go to ownership and say, “We will do everything we can, including some blood work to protect the sanctity of the game, if we can all just move on from here.”

If I was a conspiracy theorist, what I’d believe is that isn’t happening because…everyone really likes cheating in baseball, but nobody wants to admit it. Let me be clear: the MLBPA and the players are NO SAINTS. At all. But they are no worse than Selig and the rest of ownership to me. But both sides are maneuvering to protect their own interests. Let's hope Adam Smith is still right.

I may be the only person who actually really wants to fix the problem, but if you’re with me and have a spare million to throw at the problem, we could make some real noise and time it with the pop-culture epicenter for steroids, which will no doubt be July 12, 2007 at the gem of a ballpark at 24 Willie Mays Plaza.

I love baseball, but I hate the hypocrisy and resold my entire seasons ticket package for the Giants' games the last 2 years. Two seats for all 81 home games, lower box, 1st base side -- great seats.

I'm sure as Barry Bonds nears 755 and the All-Star game is in town, my own hypocrisy will be tested. I am not certain I won't try to worm my way back into my seats for a couple of games...

Bud Selig, if you want to blow $500 running a "Robert Seidman is a hypocrite" campaign against the keyword robert seidman, knock yourself out, but I think you'd be better served doing these two things:

- admit what you knew and when you knew it and say you're sorry

- tell the people (the fans) that the only way to have any hope of really testing is with blood tests and put pressure on the MLBPA. Make that case to the fanbase. if you really want to test for performance enhancers, that's the only case to make.

If you don't want to do any of that stuff, then will you do me a favor and just act like you love Barry?

No? I didn't think so.

Honesty and integrity matter to me and I hate to see the message hammered home time and time again that those things don't matter as much as making a buck. That's what's going on. With Barry and Bud. That's the message.

That’s a wrap on my steroid in MLB problem solving, but I wanted to go out doing at least a little something.

One Last “Steroids Rant” for Old Time’s Sake

Thank you for reading this...

The primary premise of this essay is that if you wish to actually fix a problem, say, cheating in MLB, you must fix all sides of it. In this case, the player's side plus the management's, owner's and the commissioner's side.

While I believe Barry knew what he was doing, and that Mark McGwire knew and that Sammy Sosa knew, Bud Selig also knew, Tony Larussa knew about McGwire, Dusty Baker knew about Bonds and Brian Sabean (Giants general manager) knew as well. This seems to be a witch hunt for Barry -- that's OK, if what you want to do is simply fry Barry. But if you want to fix the problem of cheating in baseball, all sides must be investigated.

What I am trying to do is encourage people to think about "the problem" in its real context. Barry is a problem for the MLB, for sure. But really, he isn't the problem but a symptom of the real problem (people cheat when the stakes are high). Management was OK with the cheating as long as it was lucrative and the President wasn't crying about Barry Bonds in his State of the Union address (2003 -- this set the stage for the congressional hearing).

I would like to see the problem fixed (and personally, I would be ok with legalizing performance enhancers for professional athletes, we LIKE superhuman feats, and we are willing to pay for it -- that's why it went on as long as it did as well...we liked it). Bud can say, and I'd applaud him, "Hey, we were just trying to give you what you want!" He isn't saying that. It is probably much closer to the truth than anything you'll hear. I am trying to encourage people to think about all sides of the problem. To that end...

Google will let you create an ad that basically says "Bud Selig is a Liar" and then link it to the search term bud selig.

So I did exactly that. A couple of hours later I checked the stats and nobody in the USA had done the bud selig search other than me. I had to do the search to see if the ad would run. Nobody was running ads on Bud Selig. Probably a smart thing as nobody was searching for Bud either. I had to do something. Nobody came to my site today via the search pacific catch iphone and now I was coming up empty with Bud. What to do?

I added the keyword barry bonds. I checked a while later and – nothing happened. That's because my default CPC was $.20 and barry bonds cost $.50. Tired of coming up empty, I said what the heck, and I took Barry for the $.50.

Predictably he performed way better than Bud. Checked back a few hours later and Barry had generated 500+ impressions and 5 clicks. It was soooo worth the $2.50. I'm going to leave the campaign running until I post this.

It made me happy to be able to do a search on Mr. Bonds and see a Google ad for "Bud Selig is a Liar". I was also the only person running an ad against the search barry bonds.

I can't believe nobody but me had a campaign up and running to capitalize on Barry. That's so shocking only because…Barry capitalizes on Barry, the media capitalize on Barry, the Giants capitalized on Barry, the guys who wrote the book about how Barry cheated capitalized on Barry, the guy who leaked the grand jury testimony was trying to capitalize on Barry, the federal prosecutor(s) try, try, try unsuccessfully to capitalize on Barry, etc. I can't believe there is not an ad. It does make a little sense though because surprisingly (to me) it's not generating that much traffic. But if he ever hits a few more home runs and gets closer to Aaron, that will change and it will be like searching on the "Sopranos" after the finale. You may remember I generated about 200 clicks via 65,000 impressions in about 10 minutes to an ad saying Time Warner chief Richard Parsons needs to go.

For me, seeing "Bud Selig is a LIAR" next to the search results for barry bonds – it cured what ailed me.

Steroids in baseball is almost the perfect hypocrisy. Everyone participated in it. Players, management, owners, media, fans, everyone participated. The hypocrisy was uniformly distributed with no side taking blame and all sides either lying to each other or themselves. I have no objection when the hypocrisy is "fair" like that, and really, here, it was. I'm over it.

But Bud Selig is a liar, and this is the one place where the hypocrisy is not quite fair. See, all the investigations, the Mitchell investigation, really all of this seems like a ruse to catch players, specifically Barry Bonds. I wouldn't have so much of a problem if I heard Mitchell on TV saying, "We are trying to find out which players cheated, but I am also personally committed to finding out what role management had, even the commissioner. What did they know and when did they know it?" But that's not the investigation. The investigation is all about the players, Mitchell isn't trying to find out about conversations Selig had with McGwire, and Sosa, and LaRussa in 1998. Bud's guilty, and he lied. Barry's guilty and he lied. Why does only one side get investigated?

Bud knew, Barry knew. But the investigation isn't about Bud. But, the problem is as much about Bud as it is Barry. Because when there is an incentive to cheat and the stakes are very high, cheating happens. Bud and the management are as much of a part of that problem as McGwire and Sosa (who hit a grand slam on Friday night for his 599^th home run, Bud must be loving that), and they all participated for the very same reason: it was lucrative. So lucrative that Mr. Selig and the rest of MLB looked the other way.

Jason Giambi may be a cheater, but he's right, it's time to say MLB screwed up, we're sorry and move on. Bud Selig and management is part of that "we" and baseball won't heal until all sides accept their roles, and figure out the best way to move on from here.

Right now, that's not happening. That's because Bud Selig , the commissioner of MLB, is a hypocrite and a liar.

I miss the Bowie Kuhn days something awful.

Bud Selig is a Liar: Why I love Ted Leonsis and Mark Cuban

A little background for those of you who don't know me is in order. I am definitely in the statistically small group of people who knew who Mark Cuban was before he was a billionaire or knew who Ted Leonsis was before he was en route to becoming a billionaire (he's not there yet, but it's on his list of things to do) and owned all or parts of the Washington Capitals (NHL), Washington Wizards (NBA) and Washington Mystics (WNBA). Both Mark and Ted were very good to me going back some 10+ years now. One thing I love in my recent contact with these guys is that fame and success did not seem to change the overall makeup and drive of these two men.

I am grateful to both of them because at a time when I had a little bit of fire in my belly they took the spark and poured some gasoline on it and for me personally that's an extraordinary lovely thing.

Lying goes on all around us. We're lied to constantly. Interestingly as Ted and Mark both own sports franchises… Well think about this, as of a year ago, Mark had been fined $1.6 million dollars (that's probably more money than I have ever had at once)by the NBA. Why? He was fined for what he said, which was, an honest portrayal of how he felt. He was fined $1.6 million dollars for being honest. The league seems to believe that honesty is NOT the best policy for the NBA. I actually don't have strong feelings on David Stern or the NBA, certainly not in the way Cuban or Leonsis probably would.

I don't really know the inner workings of the NBA enough to comment on the inner workings of it or well enough to comment on whether David Stern is a person who acts with both the best interests of the NBA and integrity. It seems to me like he does, but I don't know well enough.

But I know enough about baseball, it's inner workings, psychology, values, etc., to know the following: Bud Selig is a liar. The owners and the management of the San Francisco Giants are…liars. Bud Selig is lying about Steroids. Yes, I said lying about it. And if he wishes to take me to court for slander, fine. All Selig can hope for is that by the time all of the "what did he know and when did he know it" comes out, that he'll be gone. He's playing the game of "musical chairs" and basically what Bud is probably hoping for is that by the time the music stops he's not around even LOOKING for a chair anymore.

This game works this way. The American public is in denial about how much we really like the results of steroids (I am not in denial about this at all, but sometimes I wish I still was!). The truth is, especially given the costs of attending this stuff, we want our professional athletes to be SUPER human. Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa AND Barry Bonds delivered. We the fans like the results, the owners liked the results, and Bud Selig liked the results. You could say that there was so much covering of eyes, ears and mouths by Selig and ownership (see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil), BUT there was also so much steroid usage that there's no way they got through this period without seeing or at least hearing about someone getting a needle jabbed in their butt. I'm not talking about last year or the year before either. I'm talking 1998-2002 when it was going on, everyone more or less knew it and then looked the other way.

Human nature is that when the stakes are high, people will cheat. This is why Jason Giambi cheated. And why, not only after he got caught (via leaked testimony – and the guy who leaked it is going to JAIL – I'm thrilled about that, probably the biggest smile of the week for me!!!) for steroids, he got caught for amphetamines (greenies) just last year. But Giambi came out with the truth:

I was wrong for doing that stuff. What we should have done a long time ago was stand up -- players, ownership, everybody -- and said: `We made a mistake.' We should have apologized back then and made sure we had a rule in place and gone forward. ... Steroids and all of that was a part of history. But it was a topic that everybody wanted to avoid. Nobody wanted to talk about it."

Although Giambi is a confirmed cheater, he is, in my opinion, absolutely correct about this. Here's how Selig is handling this: he's pressuring Giambi to cooperate with the steroids investigation: name some names or I will suspend you (more or less).

If Hank Aaron wants to be upset with Barry Bonds, I don't have any issue with that at all. But Bud Selig? Please. You knew Bud, and you looked the other way and did nothing. But then you're the kind of guy who would say, "Yeah, I'm an owner, but just go ahead and make me the commissioner!" We already knew right there this is a man lacking in integrity. But it made a lot of people a lot of money and produced a product people wanted to pay for. Everyone was really happy about this: the owners (they made tons of money on this), the players (they made tons of money – and much more with performance enhancements) and the fans, who couldn't eat it up fast enough.

But Bud is a lying hypocrite, so are the owners, and really so are most of the fans. Giambi did tell the truth in that quote above, that's exactly how it is. But once again, your kids are subtley getting the message: honesty isn't the best policy and cheating works – whether you're a player, the owner or the commissioner. It's a bad message to send. Giambi told the truth and the negative reinforcing feedback is, "Whoever told you honesty was the best policy, was lying!"

I love that there are guys like Cuban and Leonsis out there: again, they aren't perfect, but they aren't motivated to cheat and lie due to the stakes being high. They aren't perfect, but in a world massively lacking it at times, these two gentleman have some integrity, and that's something I value very much.

As for steroids, I think this ultimately will hit the NFL hardest of all. We haven't anywhere near begun to hear the last of it. Sorry Mr. Goodell.

Homework from Ted Leonsis and No, I don’t Think Roger Goodell is a “Poor Sap”

After a spirited email exchange with about 25 volleys, Mr. Leonsis did convince me not to overvalue the Nielsen Ratings for sporting events when it came to trying to correlate that to anything(other than the number of people who tuned in).

Then he gave me a book recommendation: The Elusive Fan: Reinventing Sports in a Crowded Market Place. He told me he thought that was the kind of stuff I ought to be writing about.
By page 20, I was inclined to agree with him. The book combines so many things I love:


· Capitalism
· Psychology
· Sociology
· Philosophy
· Research/Science
· Fun with Numbers (data)
· and SPORTS!

While the Nielsen Ratings for NHL games are definitely bleak relative to NFL, MLB and NBA, what’s happening with the NHL is all part of a bigger trend. It may look worse for the NHL ratings wise (at least in terms of the Stanley Cup), but it’s all part of the same overall trend. All kinds of entertainment and “free-time” choices are available, and many of them don’t involve the television at all. The free-time itself is in limited supply.

The NBA, and MLB have certainly seen ratings declines. NBA Finals with scores like 75-72 aren’t helping with the ratings. We like scoring, just like we like home runs (I won’t go off into the steroids rant here) we want to see Lebron score 50 points and even if they lost 127-112, we’d like that better. 75-72 isn’t attractive to the casual fan.

The NFL faces the same challenges. The Super Bowl will probably remain golden for a long, long time though. It’s just a hunch, but the Super Bowl – that’s not about “football”. That’s about a national holiday to have an excuse to get drunk and have a party on a Sunday. It’s St. Patrick’s Day, only better because there’s gambling, square pools, etc. We’re not giving that up any sooner than we’re giving up St. Patrick’s Day.

But here’s the thing. My brain couldn’t really process it at first because it seems so counter intuitive to me. The NFL, NBA, MLB and the NHL will continue to experience lower ratings vs. the glory days, and mostly, the ratings aren’t going to come back. I know the NFL will try to squeeze out Brady vs. Manning in primetime wherever it can and it has the challenge of making more of its personalities interesting to the public in ways that don’t involve arrests for possessing 6,000 semi-automatic weapons.

Yesterday I said Tagliabue was a genius for getting out when he did, and that poor sap Roger Goodell was about to not know what hit him. I didn’t really mean that. They say do what you love, and you can’t go wrong, and sometimes I just love being a jackass. I said that the % of the Cincinnati Bengals arrested would be the least of his worries.

In truth, I believe Goodell’s focus is correct. Specifically because at a time when your fan base is bound to erode somewhat no matter what you do – and it will because “free-time” is limited, but the number of choices we have to fill the free-time keeps growing and growing – you absolutely do not want to have your players modeling behavior that risks alienating a fan base that was already bound to erode. It’s like pushing them out the door. I like his focus. And I like that Pacman “make it rain” Jones will not be suiting up for a single game this year.

But here’s the thing that’s counterintuitive. Despite the eroding fan bases and television ratings, the actual value and health of these leagues can continue to grow anyway, provided it’s managed well.

While even the NFL can’t escape the fan erosion, they of ALL the leagues are best positioned to really rake it in despite the erosion. Managed well, the MLB, NBA and NHL (yes, the NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE – there, I said it) can all do the same, albeit on a smaller scale. It was true 20 years ago and it is still true today. Even with record low ratings.

As for “record low Nielsen ratings” – breathe it in! We’re in a trend to hear that phrase applied to many things. Not just NHL, or NBA finals – it’s already hit the evening news. Katie Couric is taking the heat for that, but really, it’s all part of the same game – limited free time, more choices, more record low ratings. For just about everything really.

But for now and the foreseeable future, television will be a very powerful medium, but with fewer and fewer things that have the capability to bring in massive # of people. That makes the NFL worth…more than it has ever been. Even with eroding ratings. I am not worried about Roger Goodell, and he is no poor sap.

I predict a follow up to the book The Elusive Fan. It will be: The Elusive Viewer: Reinventing Television in a Crowded Marketplace. The beauty of it is, they could just do a find and replace to randomly replace all the “sports” terms with television terms and as is – this book would be more valuable to TV executives than anything they’re reading in Variety. Or, they could just read it as is.