Wednesday, July 25, 2007

AAPL Total World Domination on Track

Why I am not long AAPL with great resolution is indeed very quirky on my part (up over $13 in the after hours, it would have significantly outperformed my YHOO trade so far!).

To my Mac loving friends who are bitter over all the iPod attention, buck up, Apple sold about 1.5 million more Macs than iPhones in the quarter. Apple expects to hit 1 million iPhone by the end of Q3. That basically will give them 5 quarters to add 9 million more to hit the stated objective of 10 million units by the end of 2008. Five quarters to pump almost 2 million iPhones per quarter into the world.

Apple is selling almost 10 million iPods per quarter now. When I saw whatever the # was a year ago, my thought was yeah, but can that keep up? Apparently for now the answer is it can. iPod sales were up more than 20% over the prior year’s quarter. Even Macs are pushing towards 2 million sales per quarter.

The stock got dinged a little earlier in the week when AT&T reported 146,000 units for the last 2 days of June. Apple’s number for those 2 days was 270,000. Whether the discrepancy is over activation issues, or something else, I don’t know, but as Apple claims it’s on track for one million units by the end of September, we can assume Apple expects to average about 8000 units a day sold between now and the end of September. Or they’ll blow by a million a month and a half earlier and everyone will be amazed. I’m not sure what I make of the guidance other than I can’t believe Apple would talk about making a million units by the end of September if not absolutely certain it would happen.

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Disclosure: much to my own disgust, I really am not holding any shares of AAPL. But, I will keep singing the mantra of "buy strength/sell weakness", on that basis AAPL looks like a buy I still need to get around to (it was up over $13 to somewhere around $150 in after hours trading)

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